Chapter 5
The Growth Constraint:
and the Self-Financeable Growth Rate
5.1 The cash conversion cycle
Let be the rate of sales and the working capital of Definition 3.2. Since is a sum of the of (3.2), it depends on .
5.2 The fundamental inequality
Substituting (5.1) into (3.9) of Proposition 3.17, the cash balance can be written
| (5.2) |
The constraint of Section 4.2 therefore takes the following form.
Proof. Substitute into (3.9) and rearrange . □
Equation (5.3) reads: working capital cannot exceed equity net of fixed assets. The left-hand side is fixed by , the right-hand side by the capital structure. The rest of this chapter, and each chapter of Part II, treats a special case of this inequality.
Corollary 5.3 (Upper bound on scale). When , the feasible rate of sales is bounded above by
| (5.4) |
When and , (5.3) holds for every .
The dimension is yen per year, matching the rate of sales. Where is a bound on the growth rate, is a bound on the level. The two are separate constraints and neither implies the other (Remark 5.8).
Corollary 5.4 (Without capital, only with can be chosen). When , (5.3) requires , that is .
Corollary 5.4 is the starting point of Chapter 8. What remains available to a party without capital is only those in which settlement precedes delivery.
5.3 Growth and free cash flow
The fundamental inequality is a constraint on the level. Change is treated next.
Proposition 5.5 (Growth and free cash flow). Writing for the margin and for capital expenditure, and taking to be constant and independent of ,
| (5.5) |
Proof. Free cash flow is gross margin less the increase in working capital and capital expenditure:
By (5.1), , and if is constant then . Substituting gives (5.5). □
Remark 5.6 ( is the time derivative of the cash balance). Differentiate (5.2). By (3.10), , and fixed assets satisfy (investment less depreciation). With no dividends and no external funding,
So is not an independently introduced quantity but the time derivative of (3.9). The of the next section is therefore the boundary of .
Solve (5.5) for . The of (5.1) appears in the denominator.
Corollary 5.7 (Self-financeable growth rate). Writing for depreciation as a fraction of sales and for the growth rate, the condition is
| (5.6) |
When there is no : at any growth rate.
Proof. If is the operating margin, depreciation has already been deducted, yet depreciation involves no cash outlay. The cash-basis gross margin is therefore . Correcting (5.5) gives . Substituting and dividing by , . Solving for gives (5.6). When the left-hand side is positive for every . □
5.4 Level and change are separate constraints
Remark 5.8 (The constraint on the level and the constraint on change are independent). Corollary 5.3 follows from and Corollary 5.7 from . Neither implies the other. Even with , if then falls and (4.3) is violated in finite time.
Proposition 5.9 (Time to cash depletion). Let , let be constant, and let . If , then starting from the cash runs out at
| (5.7) |
and as .
Proof. By Remark 5.6, with . Integrating, . Since implies , falls, and solving gives (5.7). As , and the argument of the logarithm diverges. □
Equation (5.7) puts a value on the insolvency time that Proposition 4.7 introduced only as a symbol, and fixes when the insolvency of Corollary 4.8 actually arrives.
Example 5.10 ( is a threshold, not a cliff). With , , years, and , we have .
| Growth rate | |
| 16.8 years | |
| 8.7 years | |
| 3.9 years | |
| 1.4 years | |
| 0.6 years |
A slight excess leaves more than a decade; a large one exhausts the cash within a year. What matters is not whether has been exceeded but by how much.
Remark 5.11 ( is also an amplifier of demand variation). Equation (5.2) is linear in with coefficient . If and are independent of in the short run,
So not only fixes the bound on the level; it amplifies variation in demand into variation in cash. The larger a sector’s , the more readily (4.3) is violated for the same variation in demand.
Because no process is specified for , no is given here. That the amplification coefficient is can be stated without specifying the process.
Remark 5.12 (No assumption that ). With a constant asset base, and (5.6) reduces to . That assumption is not made here. The measurements of Section 14.5 put between and across industries and size classes, which does not agree with .
Remark 5.13 (Divergence when is small). Equation (5.6) diverges as . Even for positive , if it is only a few days then a small movement in the numerator moves a great deal.
At days, for instance, a one-point change in the numerator moves by about 73 points. In sectors where is small, does not work as an indicator. Section 14.5 shows this by reporting standard deviations alongside.
is the rate of growth that can be financed internally and is in substance identical to the self-financeable growth rate of [4]. The relation between and the growth rate is shown in Figure 5.1.
Example 5.14 (The magnitudes actually takes). Consider a business with operating margin , depreciation of sales, and capital expenditure — close to the all-industry figures measured in Section 14.5. The numerator is
Computing for several values of :
| (days) | (years) | For reference: | |
| 120 | 0.329 | 12.2% | 15.2% |
| 90 | 0.247 | 16.2% | 20.3% |
| 60 | 0.164 | 24.3% | 30.4% |
| 30 | 0.082 | 48.7% | 60.9% |
| −30 | −0.082 | does not exist | does not exist |
A business with days necessarily needs outside funding to grow faster than 12% a year. A business with days accumulates cash the faster it grows. The sign fixes the qualitative constitution; the magnitude fixes the quantitative room.
The right-hand column gives the value when and are ignored. Here , so overstates . For businesses investing above depreciation, an assessment using alone is optimistic.
Remark 5.15 (Domain of definition). Equation (5.1) presumes a steady state and is undefined immediately after founding, where . This is taken up again in Section 12.4.
5.5 is a sum of lags
Substituting Proposition 3.12 into (5.1) eliminates .
Proposition 5.16 (Structure of ). In a steady state,
| (5.8) |
That is, does not depend on the flow; it is a sum of lags.
Proof. From and (3.7), . Divide both sides by . Since (3.7) holds as a time average (Remark 3.13), this proposition is likewise a statement about averages. □
Three consequences follow from (5.8). All are deductions and use no observation.
Corollary 5.17 (Source of differences in level). is the quantity specified by degree of freedom (1) of Section 2.5, the order of and . The level of is therefore fixed by .
Corollary 5.18 (Cross-sectional comparison is meaningless). Comparing the level of across objects with different is comparing different contractual forms, and carries no information about demand or efficiency.
Corollary 5.19 (Aggregation is an -weighted mean). In the parallel arrangement of Proposition 3.9, writing for the rate of sales of each part,
| (5.9) |
so is not additive.
Proof. From (Proposition 3.9) and , . □
Equation (5.9) means that computing for a firm running from several families in parallel yields a weighted mean of terms with opposite signs. This is the ground for taking , not the firm, as the unit of observation.
Corollary 5.20 (Decomposition of change). Differencing (5.8) splits it as
| (5.10) |
In (5.10), means a change in contractual terms, whereas arises independently of contracts.
5.6 The path constraint and the peak
Equation (4.3) is imposed for every and every . Yet, as Remark 3.13 notes, is a time average. What binds is the peak, not the average.
Proposition 5.21 (Working capital at the peak). With a constant rate of sales, a billing period and a payment lag , the time average of is and its maximum is . Equation (5.3) therefore becomes
| (5.11) |
Proof. At each billing date the deliveries of are invoiced and settled at . The unsettled cumulant is the sum of what has accrued since the last invoice and what has been invoiced but not paid; it is a sawtooth with minimum just after a billing date and maximum just before one. Its average over a cycle is . The peak exceeds the measured as an average by , so evaluating the left-hand side of (5.3) at the peak gives (5.11). □
With monthly billing, is about fifteen days. Estimating the capital required from a computed as an average understates it by half a month. The measurements in Part IV rest on period-end balances or within-period averages and do not include this difference.
5.7 Comparative statics
Every quantity in this chapter is a function of parameters. Setting the derivatives side by side shows the designer of what to move and by how much.
| Quantity | Derivative | Content |
| independent of |
||
| improving the margin bites harder the smaller is |
||
| Eq. (5.4) | the same coefficient as for |
|
| Eq. (5.4) | raising equity bites harder the larger is |
|
| Remark 5.11 |
Proposition 5.22 (Lags are perfect substitutes at the margin). By (5.8), for every , independently of .
Proof. From and we have , hence . □
Collecting one day earlier and paying one day later are equivalent for . By the third row of Table 5.3, the same coefficient appears for . Whether one looks at the level or at change, the design guidance for is the same.
Corollary 5.18 supplies a deductive ground for the limitation stated in Remark 2.5. That the quantities here are defined as levels is a presentational choice, but the impossibility of cross-sectional comparison is a consequence of the definitions.
Remark 5.23 (No comparable quantity can be constructed). Corollary 5.18 states why comparison fails; it does not supply a way to compare.
The natural candidate is the deviation from the that the contract specifies,
This quantity does not depend on , so it can be compared across industries, and it measures whether performance follows the contract.
But is the payment term of an individual contract and does not exist in published statistics. The theoretical problem is solved and the measurement problem takes its place — category (iv), access constraint, in the taxonomy of Section 13.2.
Remark 5.24 (Independence of and ). Corollary 5.7 gives as a ratio but does not guarantee that numerator and denominator move independently.
The measurements of Section 14.5 show rising 49% and rising 91% between fiscal 2000 and fiscal 2024 — both increasing. If holding more working capital and earning a higher margin are positively related, a change in cannot be read as a loosening of the constraint.
This text does not formalize the relation between the two. is reported as the value of a ratio and given no causal interpretation.