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v0.28.9 — This text is under construction. The structure of the theory, the propositions, and the empirical conclusions may all change. Overview

Chapter 5
The Growth Constraint: CCC and the Self-Financeable Growth Rate

5.1 The cash conversion cycle

Let r(t) be the rate of sales and W(t) the working capital of Definition 3.2. Since W is a sum of the κi of (3.2), it depends on Φ.

Definition 5.1 (Cash conversion cycle). In a steady state, define

CCC = W r (5.1)

Its dimension is time.

5.2 The fundamental inequality

Substituting (5.1) into (3.9) of Proposition 3.17, the cash balance can be written

M(t) = E(t) −CCC ⋅ r(t) − A(t) (5.2)

The constraint M ≥ 0 of Section 4.2 therefore takes the following form.

Proposition 5.2 (The fundamental inequality). The cash constraint (4.3) is equivalent to

CCC ⋅ r(t,ω) ≤E(t) − A(t) (5.3)

Proof. Substitute W = CCC ⋅ r into (3.9) and rearrange M ≥ 0. □

Equation (5.3) reads: working capital cannot exceed equity net of fixed assets. The left-hand side is fixed by Φ, the right-hand side by the capital structure. The rest of this chapter, and each chapter of Part II, treats a special case of this inequality.

Corollary 5.3 (Upper bound on scale). When CCC > 0, the feasible rate of sales is bounded above by

r ≤rmax ⁡ = E − A CCC (5.4)

When CCC ≤ 0 and E ≥ A, (5.3) holds for every r.

The dimension is yen per year, matching the rate of sales. Where g⋆ is a bound on the growth rate, rmax ⁡ is a bound on the level. The two are separate constraints and neither implies the other (Remark 5.8).

Corollary 5.4 (Without capital, only Φ with CCC ≤ 0 can be chosen). When E = 0, (5.3) requires CCC ⋅ r ≤−A ≤ 0, that is CCC ≤ 0.

Corollary 5.4 is the starting point of Chapter 8. What remains available to a party without capital is only those Φ in which settlement precedes delivery.

5.3 Growth and free cash flow

The fundamental inequality is a constraint on the level. Change is treated next.

Proposition 5.5 (Growth and free cash flow). Writing m for the margin and I for capital expenditure, and taking CCC to be constant and independent of m,

FCF = mr −CCC ⋅r˙ − I (5.5)

Proof. Free cash flow is gross margin less the increase in working capital and capital expenditure:

FCF = mr −W˙ − I.

By (5.1), W = CCC ⋅ r, and if CCC is constant then W˙ = CCC ⋅r˙. Substituting gives (5.5). □

Remark 5.6 (FCF is the time derivative of the cash balance). Differentiate (5.2). By (3.10), E˙ = ϕ −Div˙, and fixed assets satisfy A˙ = I − dr (investment less depreciation). With no dividends and no external funding,

M˙ = ϕ + dr −CCCr˙ − I = FCF

So FCF is not an independently introduced quantity but the time derivative of (3.9). The g⋆ of the next section is therefore the boundary of M˙ ≥ 0.

Solve (5.5) for g. The CCC of (5.1) appears in the denominator.

Corollary 5.7 (Self-financeable growth rate). Writing d for depreciation as a fraction of sales and g = r˙∕r for the growth rate, the condition FCF ≥ 0 is

g ≤g⋆ = m + d − I∕r CCC (5.6)

When CCC < 0 there is no g⋆: FCF > 0 at any growth rate.

Proof. If m is the operating margin, depreciation has already been deducted, yet depreciation involves no cash outlay. The cash-basis gross margin is therefore (m + d)r. Correcting (5.5) gives FCF = (m + d)r −CCCr˙ − I. Substituting r˙ = gr and dividing by r, FCF∕r = (m + d) −CCCg − I∕r. Solving FCF ≥ 0 for g gives (5.6). When CCC < 0 the left-hand side is positive for every g > 0. □

5.4 Level and change are separate constraints

Remark 5.8 (The constraint on the level and the constraint on change are independent). Corollary 5.3 follows from M ≥ 0 and Corollary 5.7 from M˙ ≥ 0. Neither implies the other. Even with M(0) > 0, if g > g⋆ then M falls and (4.3) is violated in finite time.

Proposition 5.9 (Time to cash depletion). Let I = 0, let g be constant, and let r(t) = r0e𝑔𝑡. If g > g⋆ = (m + d)∕CCC, then starting from M(0) = M0 > 0 the cash runs out at

Tins = 1 gln⁡ (1 + gM0 (CCCg − m − d)r0 ) (5.7)

and Tins →∞ as g ↓ g⋆.

Proof. By Remark 5.6, M˙ = ar0e𝑔𝑡 with a = (m + d) −CCCg. Integrating, M(t) = M0 + (ar0∕g)(e𝑔𝑡 − 1). Since g > g⋆ implies a < 0, M falls, and solving M(Tins) = 0 gives (5.7). As g → g⋆, a → 0 and the argument of the logarithm diverges. □

Equation (5.7) puts a value on the insolvency time that Proposition 4.7 introduced only as a symbol, and fixes when the insolvency of Corollary 4.8 actually arrives.

Example 5.10 (g⋆ is a threshold, not a cliff). With m = 5%, d = 2%, CCC = 0.25 years, M0 = 100 and r0 = 1,000, we have g⋆ = 28%.

Growth rate Tins
g⋆ + 0.001 16.8 years
g⋆ + 0.01 8.7 years
g⋆ + 0.05 3.9 years
g⋆ + 0.2 1.4 years
g⋆ + 0.5 0.6 years
Table 5.1: Excess over g⋆ and the time to cash depletion.

A slight excess leaves more than a decade; a large one exhausts the cash within a year. What matters is not whether g⋆ has been exceeded but by how much.

Remark 5.11 (CCC is also an amplifier of demand variation). Equation (5.2) is linear in r with coefficient −CCC. If E and A are independent of r in the short run,

Var ⁡ [M] = CCC2 Var ⁡ [r]

So CCC not only fixes the bound on the level; it amplifies variation in demand into variation in cash. The larger a sector’s CCC, the more readily (4.3) is violated for the same variation in demand.

Because no process is specified for r, no ℙ(Tins ≤ t) is given here. That the amplification coefficient is CCC can be stated without specifying the process.

Remark 5.12 (No assumption that I ≈ dr). With a constant asset base, I = dr and (5.6) reduces to m∕CCC. That assumption is not made here. The measurements of Section 14.5 put I∕r between − 1.8% and 6.7% across industries and size classes, which does not agree with d.

Remark 5.13 (Divergence when CCC is small). Equation (5.6) diverges as CCC → 0. Even for positive CCC, if it is only a few days then a small movement in the numerator moves g⋆ a great deal.

At CCC = 5 days, for instance, a one-point change in the numerator moves g⋆ by about 73 points. In sectors where CCC is small, g⋆ does not work as an indicator. Section 14.5 shows this by reporting standard deviations alongside.

g⋆ is the rate of growth that can be financed internally and is in substance identical to the self-financeable growth rate of [4]. The relation between FCF and the growth rate is shown in Figure 5.1.

Figure 5.1: Growth rate and free cash flow. The vertical intercept is the numerator of (5.6); the sign of CCC fixes the sign of the slope.

Example 5.14 (The magnitudes g⋆ actually takes). Consider a business with operating margin m = 5%, depreciation d = 2.5% of sales, and capital expenditure I∕r = 3.5% — close to the all-industry figures measured in Section 14.5. The numerator is

m + d − I∕r = 5.0 + 2.5 − 3.5 = 4.0%

Computing g⋆ for several values of CCC:

CCC (days) CCC (years) g⋆ For reference: m∕CCC
120 0.329 12.2% 15.2%
90 0.247 16.2% 20.3%
60 0.164 24.3% 30.4%
30 0.082 48.7% 60.9%
−30 −0.082 does not exist does not exist
Table 5.2: g⋆ and m∕CCC for several values of CCC (illustrative).

A business with CCC = 120 days necessarily needs outside funding to grow faster than 12% a year. A business with CCC = −30 days accumulates cash the faster it grows. The sign fixes the qualitative constitution; the magnitude fixes the quantitative room.

The right-hand column gives the value when d and I are ignored. Here d < I∕r, so m∕CCC overstates g⋆. For businesses investing above depreciation, an assessment using m alone is optimistic.

Remark 5.15 (Domain of definition). Equation (5.1) presumes a steady state and is undefined immediately after founding, where r ≈ 0. This is taken up again in Section 12.4.

5.5 CCC is a sum of lags

Substituting Proposition 3.12 into (5.1) eliminates r.

Proposition 5.16 (Structure of CCC). In a steady state,

CCC = ∑ iτi + τinv,τinv ≡ Inv r (5.8)

That is, CCC does not depend on the flow; it is a sum of lags.

Proof. From W = ∑ ⁡ iκi + Inv and (3.7), W = r∑ ⁡ iτi + Inv. Divide both sides by r. Since (3.7) holds as a time average (Remark 3.13), this proposition is likewise a statement about averages. □

Three consequences follow from (5.8). All are deductions and use no observation.

Corollary 5.17 (Source of differences in level). τi is the quantity specified by degree of freedom (1) of Section 2.5, the order of supp ⁡ (π) and supp ⁡ (δ). The level of CCC is therefore fixed by Φ.

Corollary 5.18 (Cross-sectional comparison is meaningless). Comparing the level of CCC across objects with different Φ is comparing different contractual forms, and carries no information about demand or efficiency.

Corollary 5.19 (Aggregation is an r-weighted mean). In the parallel arrangement of Proposition 3.9, writing rk for the rate of sales of each part,

CCC = ∑ kwkCCCk,wk = rk ∑ jrj (5.9)

so CCC is not additive.

Proof. From W = ∑ ⁡ kWk (Proposition 3.9) and Wk = CCCkrk, CCC = ∑ ⁡ kCCCkrk∕∑ jrj. □

Equation (5.9) means that computing CCC for a firm running Φ from several families in parallel yields a weighted mean of terms with opposite signs. This is the ground for taking Φ, not the firm, as the unit of observation.

Corollary 5.20 (Decomposition of change). Differencing (5.8) splits it as

ΔCCC = ∑ iΔτi⏟ change in contracts + Δτinv⏟ change in operations (5.10)

In (5.10), Δτi≠0 means a change in contractual terms, whereas Δτinv arises independently of contracts.

5.6 The path constraint and the peak

Equation (4.3) is imposed for every t and every ω. Yet, as Remark 3.13 notes, κ¯i = rτi is a time average. What binds is the peak, not the average.

Proposition 5.21 (Working capital at the peak). With a constant rate of sales, a billing period Tb and a payment lag τi, the time average of κi(t) is r(τi + Tb∕2) and its maximum is r(τi + Tb). Equation (5.3) therefore becomes

r ≤ E − A CCC + Tb∕2 (5.11)

Proof. At each billing date kTb the deliveries of [(k − 1)Tb,kTb) are invoiced and settled at kTb + τi. The unsettled cumulant is the sum of what has accrued since the last invoice and what has been invoiced but not paid; it is a sawtooth with minimum rτi just after a billing date and maximum r(τi + Tb) just before one. Its average over a cycle is r(τi + Tb∕2). The peak exceeds the CCC measured as an average by Tb∕2, so evaluating the left-hand side of (5.3) at the peak gives (5.11). □

With monthly billing, Tb∕2 is about fifteen days. Estimating the capital required from a CCC computed as an average understates it by half a month. The measurements in Part IV rest on period-end balances or within-period averages and do not include this difference.

5.7 Comparative statics

Every quantity in this chapter is a function of parameters. Setting the derivatives side by side shows the designer of Φ what to move and by how much.

Quantity Derivative

Content

g⋆ ∂ln⁡g⋆∕∂τi = −1∕CCC

independent of i

g⋆ ∂g⋆∕∂𝑚 = 1∕CCC

improving the margin bites harder the smaller CCC is

Eq. (5.4) ∂ln⁡rmax ⁡ ∕∂τi = −1∕CCC

the same coefficient as for g⋆

Eq. (5.4) ∂ln⁡rmax ⁡ ∕∂𝐸 = 1∕(E − A)

raising equity bites harder the larger A is

Var ⁡ [M] ∂Var ⁡ [M]∕∂CCC = 2CCCVar ⁡ [r]

Remark 5.11

Table 5.3: Comparative statics of the quantities in this chapter.

Proposition 5.22 (Lags are perfect substitutes at the margin). By (5.8), ∂ln⁡g⋆∕∂τi = −1∕CCC for every i, independently of i.

Proof. From g⋆ = (m + d − I∕r)∕CCC and CCC = ∑ ⁡ jτj + τinv we have ∂CCC∕∂τi = 1, hence ∂ln⁡g⋆∕∂τi = −∂ln⁡CCC∕∂τi = −1∕CCC. □

Collecting one day earlier and paying one day later are equivalent for g⋆. By the third row of Table 5.3, the same coefficient appears for rmax ⁡ . Whether one looks at the level or at change, the design guidance for Φ is the same.

Corollary 5.18 supplies a deductive ground for the limitation stated in Remark 2.5. That the quantities here are defined as levels is a presentational choice, but the impossibility of cross-sectional comparison is a consequence of the definitions.

Remark 5.23 (No comparable quantity can be constructed). Corollary 5.18 states why comparison fails; it does not supply a way to compare.

The natural candidate is the deviation from the τicontract that the contract specifies,

τiobserved − τ icontract

This quantity does not depend on Φ, so it can be compared across industries, and it measures whether performance follows the contract.

But τicontract is the payment term of an individual contract and does not exist in published statistics. The theoretical problem is solved and the measurement problem takes its place — category (iv), access constraint, in the taxonomy of Section 13.2.

Remark 5.24 (Independence of m and CCC). Corollary 5.7 gives g⋆ as a ratio but does not guarantee that numerator and denominator move independently.

The measurements of Section 14.5 show CCC rising 49% and m rising 91% between fiscal 2000 and fiscal 2024 — both increasing. If holding more working capital and earning a higher margin are positively related, a change in g⋆ cannot be read as a loosening of the constraint.

This text does not formalize the relation between the two. g⋆ is reported as the value of a ratio and given no causal interpretation.