目次
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Abstract
Contents
I
Theory
1
Introduction: Choosing the Time Structure of Cash as the Variable
1.1
The problem
1.2
Structure of the text, and how to read it
1.3
What this text does not claim
2
The Business Model: Phi and the Generation of Cash Flow
2.1
Primitive sets
2.2
Schedules and spaces
2.3
The map from delivery to settlement
2.4
Generating the cash flow
2.5
Degrees of freedom of Phi
2.6
Three risk operations
2.7
Divergence between right and exercise
3
The Credit Position: kappa and the Lag tau
3.1
The gap between delivery and settlement
3.2
Decomposing the cash balance
4
Information Structure and the Objective
4.1
Verifiable shared information
4.2
The objective: a cash constraint imposed path by path
4.3
Heterogeneity of discount factors
5
The Growth Constraint: CCC and the Self-Financeable Growth Rate
5.1
The cash conversion cycle
5.2
The fundamental inequality
5.3
Growth and free cash flow
5.4
Level and change are separate constraints
5.5
CCC is a sum of lags
5.6
The path constraint and the peak
5.7
Comparative statics
6
Surplus and Layers: Source, Durability, Mutability
6.1
The three-way decomposition of surplus
6.2
Surplus and cash
6.3
Layers: five levels ordered by mutability
II
The Space of Maps
7
A Catalogue of Phi: Seven Families, Twenty-Eight Types
7.1
How the catalogue is built
7.2
Family 1: one-off exchange
7.3
Family 2: continuing access
7.4
Family 3: renting an asset over time
7.5
Family 4: recovery through a complement
7.6
Family 5: outcome- and state-contingent
7.7
Family 6: intermediation
7.8
Family 7: separating beneficiary from payer
7.9
Assigning an observation to a type
7.10
Limits of the catalogue
7.11
A real firm is a bundle of Phi
8
A Subspace Under Constraints: Alone, Without Assets, Without Credit
8.1
The premises imposed in this chapter
8.2
Translating the premises
8.3
What the cloud means structurally
8.4
Sieving the types
8.5
The credit bootstrap problem
8.6
Relaxing a premise: those who hold assets
8.7
The formation of credit
8.8
The trade-off between contract work and publishing
8.9
Employment contracts reread
8.10
Limits of this chapter
9
Unmanned Operation: The Limit With the Operator Removed
9.1
The question
9.2
Formalizing “unmanned”
9.3
Decomposing the bootstrap
9.4
Limits of this chapter
10
The Supplier of the Information Structure: Settlement by Protocol
10.1
The premises imposed in this chapter
10.2
Translating the premises
10.3
Identifiers diverge from parties
10.4
Sieving the types
10.5
The collateral constraint
10.6
Observability
10.7
Limits of this chapter
III
Method
11
Design of the Empirical Work: Connecting to Observation
11.1
What is to be tested
11.2
Five stages to pass
11.3
What to check at each stage
11.4
Reconciliation versus verification
11.5
Where each stage is handled in this text
11.6
Priorities for the survey
11.7
Variables to record
11.8
What must be pre-registered
12
Selection Bias: Decomposing the Distortions That Enter Observation
12.1
The problem
12.2
Conditioning on survival: a circularity in the framework
12.3
Selection into disclosure: correlated with the axis of interest
12.4
Age: a problem of domain, not of bias
12.5
Age, period and cohort are not identified
12.6
Retrospective narrative
12.7
Mistaking the unit: what a row denotes versus what its values denote
12.8
Selection of variables: the gaps are not random
12.9
The observation frame in practice
12.10
How to proceed
13
A Taxonomy of Verification Obstacles: Six States
13.1
Why a taxonomy is needed
13.2
Six categories
13.3
The taxonomy also serves as a test before starting
IV
Empirics
14
Measuring the Theoretical Quantities: What Could and Could Not Be Measured
14.1
Purpose of this chapter
14.2
The primitive sets made concrete
14.3
The observed range of the map Phi
14.4
Cumulants and the credit position
14.5
Measuring the growth constraint
14.6
Right and exercise, and cognitive surplus
14.7
The information structure G made concrete
14.8
The three-way decomposition of surplus
14.9
The terms of the launch cost
14.10
Quantities relating to selection and identification
14.11
Quantities that could not be measured
15
Empirics of families 2 and 5: prepayment and outcome-contingent forms
15.1
The propositions tested in this chapter
15.2
Family 2: prepaid payment instruments
15.3
Family 5: fee-charging employment placement
15.4
Comparison of the two families and its methodological implications
15.5
The structure of the data source
15.6
What was reached and what was abandoned
15.7
A quantity that is not tabulated: the credit position of sole proprietors
16
Evidence From the Corporate Statistics: kappa and CCC Across Firms
16.1
Position of this chapter
16.2
Hot and cold are not one-dimensional
16.3
Data source
16.4
Size and the direction of credit
16.5
Is CCC a leading indicator of the cycle?
16.6
An observation not anticipated: the long-run rise in CCC
16.7
Levels by industry (for reference)
16.8
Decomposing the rise in CCC
16.9
Separating the contemporaneous negative correlation
16.10
The effect of the scope of inventories on the conclusions
16.11
An observation the simplified capacity constraint does not fit
16.12
Limitations of this chapter
16.13
On both implications being rejected
17
The Price of Externalization: Platform Fees
17.1
The implication tested
17.2
Result: a ladder of rates
17.3
A natural experiment within one platform
17.4
A counterexample: price discrimination by size
17.5
Verdict
17.6
Practical implications
17.7
Limits of the measurement
17.8
How the institutional layer acts
17.9
Assessing feasibility of further investigation
17.10
Limits of this chapter
18
Evidence From Protocol Records: M(t) and the Rate of Modification
18.1
The implications tested
18.2
Results
18.3
Quantities measurable from the same records
V
Conclusion
19
Where This Stands: What Was Established and What Remains Open
19.1
What was established and what was not
19.2
Fixing the implications in advance
19.3
Open problems
19.4
Known weaknesses of the framework
VI
Appendices
A
Supplement: proofs concerning method
A.1
Correlation induced by conditioning on a collider
A.2
Non-identification of age, period and cohort
A.3
Preference for variance under a deadline
A.4
Substitutability of capital and credit
B
Notation
C
Correspondences with existing theory
D
List of pre-registered implications
D.1
The list
D.2
Where registration changed the verdict
D.3
Defects that arose in operating the registry
E
Revision history
E.1
History of versions
E.2
Claims withdrawn
E.3
Corrections deriving from measurement
E.4
Corrections deriving from reasoning
E.5
A record of pre-registration at work
E.6
Making assumptions explicit
E.7
Introducing the lag
E.8
Re-evaluating the relation to existing theory
E.9
Filling in definitions
E.10
Examining reversibility, and a correction
E.11
Examination from the worker’s viewpoint
E.12
Extending the taxonomy of obstacles
E.13
Extending the taxonomy of biases
E.14
Reorganizing the list of open problems
E.15
The means of reproduction were not included
E.16
Removing a description resting on a single observation
E.17
Setting theorem-type body text in roman
E.18
Testing implication Y, and a defect in the registration
E.19
A route for testing the deductions of Part II
E.20
Registering implications Y and Z
E.21
Checking the scope of inventories
E.22
Filling in operationalization and reorganizing the list of open problems
E.23
Placing the empirical design first
E.24
Implication Z tested
E.25
Giving deductive grounds for choosing families 2 and 5
E.26
Removing references to places that do not exist
E.27
Resolving a contradiction in the description of phi-cog
E.28
Extending the scope of inventories to 62 industries
E.29
Stating the handling of per-firm data
E.30
Multiple definitions of a symbol
E.31
Correcting a count
E.32
Considered but not adopted in the body
E.33
Changes of structure
F
Data sources
Bibliography
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— This text is under construction. The structure of the theory, the propositions, and the empirical conclusions may all change.
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Part V
Conclusion
19
Where This Stands: What Was Established and What Remains Open
19.1
What was established and what was not
19.2
Fixing the implications in advance
19.3
Open problems
19.4
Known weaknesses of the framework
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